Future Prospects

Source: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00d8341c630a53ef0120a7ca3a1c970b-pi

The future prospects for the Alaskan Tundra are alarming due to climate change. Although the biome hasn’t been affected greatly yet, rising temperatures over the past 50 years are prompting experts such as Professor Breck Bowden, a watershed specialist, to claim “tundra as we imagine it today will largely be gone throughout the Arctic. It may take longer than 50 or even 100 years, but the inevitable direction is toward boreal forest or something like it” (Arctic Tundra is Being Lost as Far North Quickly Warms). Climate change and rising global temperatures are threatening permafrost areas, approximately 20% of the earth’s land surface, to shrink. The loss of permafrost will result in tundra becoming boreal forest, meaning the loss of habitat for many animals and plants. Permafrost melting will also certainly increase sea levels and also release large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Permafrost contains an estimated 14% of the Earth’s carbon (Tundra, National Geographic), so as the permafrost melts and carbon is released into the air, global temperatures increase, causing the permafrost to melt even faster, essentially creating a positive feedback loop (Tundra and Permafrost, Ice Stories). Luckily we have ample time to adjust our lifestyle and technology to stop the tundra from being destroyed.

Human Impacts: Cause and Effect

Global Warming and Its Impacts

Major Changes Associated With Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases:	Major Impact on Tundra:
Increased atmospheric CO2	Disproportionate increased productivity of some plants species will change plant community composition
Increased Temperatures	Moisture-stressed vegetation, changing plant communities, longer snow-free season, increased wildfire, invasion by plant and animal species from the south
Melting ice/snow	Thawing of permafrost and soil ice changed hydrology and leads to terrain instability and vegetation change
Rising sea levels	Salt water intrusion, loss of coastal habitat to erosion
Changing precipitation patterns	More winter thaws and rain-on-snow events harden snowpack, hampering mammal movements and foraging
Drying conditions/drought	Moisture stressed vegetation, reduction in coastal plain wetlands, dish passage issues in streams
More extreme rain/weather events	More landslides/slumps, changes to surface drainage patterns, surface erosion

Source: http://www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Tundra_Ecosystems_Paper.pdf